John’s Blog

September 28^th 2009

Dear Friends,

Although housing reports were less than upbeat last week Consumer confidence jumped eight points to 73.5 in September from an August reading of 65.7.

Durable goods orders slipped in August meaning that American industry continues to bleed off inventory allowing them to get a better handle on inventory levels.

With lower inventories and improved confidence one would be advised to do their holiday shopping early as it would appear as the US consumer is feeling better as time goes on. This also means that future demand will drive manufacturing upwards.

The trucking industry reported that tonnage fell 7.5% in August 2009 vs. August 2008 which is the best year over year improvement since November 2008.

The railroad industry reported that intermodal volume is down 12.4% from a year earlier. The point here is that this is better than what had been the 2009 peak set on January 10^th.

The “take away” from all of this is that the freight markets are beginning to solidify and that with inventories falling, it is likely there is going to be better freight demand in the future. The degree to which freight comes back is to be largely determined by the US consumer who appears to be feeling better each month. 

When the US employment numbers are released Friday things will be interesting. As I have said before, this recovery is going to be bumpy with several twists in the road.

At Wagner we continue to have cautious optimism as we approach the home stretch in the fourth quarter. Besides a number of start up operations now, we continue to talk to many companies about their plans in 2010 for distribution warehousing, fulfillment, and transportation.

Wagner has the seasoned professionals coupled by powerful technology to help you meet your performance expectations.

Have a great week!

John