John’s Blog

11-29-10

Dear Friends,

An abbreviated week for news last week but here is what I can share.

The Commerce Department reported that the domestic gross product grew in the 3^rd quarter at a seasonally adjusted rate of 2.5%. The GDP started growing again after a lull when consumers spent at a 2.8% rate, accounting for 70% of the growth. The GDP is the value of all goods and services produced in the US.

Economists believe that an improvement in employment will occur when the GDP grows at 3+ %. Initial jobless claims fell by 34,000 in the week ending November 20^th.showing very slight employment growth.

November consumer confidence improved according to the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan index growing to 71.6 after an October reading of 67.7. This may help with improved holiday retail sales as consumers feel a little more secure.

The initial reports from Black Friday spending were good with an estimated 212 million people shopping, an 8% increase over 2009. These shoppers also spent more with per person sales of $365, a six percent increase over last year. The turnout was the most shoppers on the day after Thanksgiving since 2004.

Durable goods orders took a beating falling 3.3% in October for the largest drop since January 2009 according to the Commerce Department. Durable goods include appliances and other products expected to have a life of at least three years.

If you are selling a home the news continues to be poor with a 2.2% drop in existing home sales in October.

The American Trucking Association reported that truck tonnage increased 6% year over year in October. The monthly increase was up 0.8% from September.

Using the year 2000 as the baseline with a reading of 100, the October index came in at 112.9 for the 11^th straight year over year increase.

Looking forward to 2011 the unknown factors are the hours of service changes being contemplated and the effect of the CSA 2010 safety restrictions on carriers. None of this will be good for trucking capacity as the driver pool will constrict. JIT networks are sure to need evaluation.

At Wagner we are finishing up seasonal business in packaging and fulfillment, starting a few new programs for commodity clients for winter seasonal material inventory builds, and planning for a better year ahead.

If you have any upcoming projects requiring materials support for manufacturing, consumer goods integrated shipping to retailers and consumers, help in tough transportation lanes, or a packaging project, don’t hesitate to give me a call.

Have a great week!

John Wagner Jr

John’s Blog

11-22-10

Dear Friends,

Let me wish everyone a safe, great Thanksgiving filled with family, friends, and togetherness.

Last week saw October retail sales jumping up 1.2% for the largest growth in seven months according to the Commerce Department. Economists had forecasted a 0.7% increase. When one takes out auto sales the number is 0.4% more in line with the forecast.

The Labor Department reported the main gauge of inflation; the consumer price index increased 0.2%. This is on the heels of a 0.1% increase in September. The core rate of inflation (removing food & energy) was unchanged at 0.6%. The rate of inflation continues to be lower than expectations.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index increased 0.5% in October to a 111.3 reading. The increase was 0.1% in August and 0.5% so a slow trend of growth continues in economic expansion.

Housing starts were down 12% in October according to the Commerce Department. This is the lowest level of starts since April of 2009.

The Federal Reserve said that factory output increased 0.5% in October led by autos, business equipment and appliances. This small uptick follows an increase of 0.1% in September so it looks like the restocking of inventories may be complete and it is now up to the consumer to spend to keep the recovery going.

Business inventories are up by 0.9% in September which was the same number as the revised August figures.

Intermodal still is growing with railroads handling 28% more containers in the quarter. Total shipments quarterly were 3.6 million units beating the 3^rd quarter number in 2008. It is safe to say that the rail transportation segment has fully recovered.

With the economic indexes continuing to show modes increases the trucking industry is poised for pricing strength in 2011.

At Wagner we are preparing for the holiday weekend and will staff as needed on a facility by facility basis to handle client requirements. The planning for 2011 is being positively impacted by a number of new opportunities that Wagner will enjoy and I am optimistic for the New Year.

Please let me know if you are experiencing any supply chain challenges. With Wagner’s menu of transportation, distribution center, fulfillment, and packaging services we are very capable of providing a solution for you.

Happy Thanksgiving!

John Wagner Jr

John’s Blog

11-15-10

Dear Friends,

Consumer confidence is on the rise as the holiday season approaches. The Thompson Reuters/University of Michigan’s index increased to 69.3 in November. It was at 67.7 in October so it appears that the consumer is starting to do their part but has a way to go getting back up to the 76 reading from last June.

If the consumer starts buying this will bode well for transportation carriers of all kinds as retailers restock their inventory. The National Retail Federation has already said their members have already boosted inventory purchases by 2.8%.

The Commerce Department reported that the US trade deficit decreased 5.3% as exports improve helped by a weak dollar. Exports rose to a two year high at 0.3% ($145.1 billion).

Likewise the Labor Department said that imported goods rose 0.9% in October for a six month high. When one removes oil, prices increased 0.3%.

On the job front the Labor Department said that jobless claims dropped 24,000. This is the lowest level since last July. Total claims were at 435,000 with the 4 week moving average at 446,500. This is the lowest level of claims since September 2008.

The Institute of Supply Management’s (ISM) Non-Manufacturing Report continues to show improvement in October with its NMI index up 1.1% from September to a reading of 54.3. As a reminder, anything over 50 signifies growth.

ISM said that October inventories were flat at 47.5, an increase of 0.5% representing contraction. Companies are apparently not replacing inventories as fast as they are selling them waiting for greater confidence before replenishing.

The ISM’s Manufacturing Report, the PMI, had an October reading of 56.9 up 2.5% from September. The take away is the manufacturing sector and the overall economy have grown for 18 months straight.

The US Department of Transportation’s Transportation Services Index rose 1% from August to September and 2.1% year over year.

The Association of American Railroads (AAR) said intermodal traffic in October was up 14 percent from October 2009. Last month's weekly average of 235,444 intermodal units was the highest since October 2007, and the 12th highest weekly monthly average for intermodal on record said the AAR.

The NRF and Hackett Associates Global Port Tracker report said that containerized imports have slowed after their August peak but are expecting a 9% increase in November.

1.34 million TEUs were handled at US ports in September down 6% from the August peak. Year over year the September numbers are up 17% from 2009.

Normally October is the peak but in 2010 the peak occurred in August as retailers stocked up early. November is forecast at 1.19 million TEUs and December at 1.1 million.

The Cass Freight Index for freight expenditures fell 2.7% in October from September. Year over year it is up 30.3% showing how far the freight market has come. On the shipment side demand fell off 5.2% from September to October.

The Longbow Research’s Trucking Barometer says that capacity tightened in the first week of November after 3 weeks of decline. Their market index increased 7.8% in that first week. Compared to 2009 the index is up a dramatic 65.3%.

A correction from last week’s blog, I got my numbers mixed up when talking about the United States Postal Service financial losses. The correct number is $8.5 billion lost in fiscal 2010. The forecast loss for 2011 is $6.4 billion unless some dramatic changes in their pension costs can be dealt with.

At Wagner we are doing year end planning and working on a number of locations where our leases are expiring “rightsizing” locations in preparation for the coming year. October finished well for the company and we have some momentum going into the New Year.

As you plan for the coming year please let me know if there are any opportunities to add value in distribution center operations, fulfillment, transportation, or packaging services. Wagner currently operates in seven US markets and would be happy to explore opening a facility for you wherever you need us.

Have a great week!

John Wagner Jr